Studi Komparatif Model Prediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Menggunakan Model Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski, dan Springate Pada Perusahaan Delisting di Bei Tahun 2020–2024
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
This study examines differences in the assessment of financial conditions among companies delisted from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during 2020–2024 using three bankruptcy prediction approaches: Altman Z-Score, Springate, and Zmijewski. The sample comprises nine delisted companies. The analysis primarily uses financial statements from the three years preceding delisting; when the required historical statements were unavailable on the IDX, financial statements within the 2020–2024 period were used. The calculations show that the three models do not produce identical classifications. In this study, the Springate model records an accuracy of 67%, followed by Altman Z-Score at 56% and Zmijewski at 44%. Type I error rates are 22%, 33%, and 56%, respectively, while no Type II error is identified in the three approaches. These results indicate that the same financial observations may lead to different classifications when processed through different prediction formulas. Historical financial information can nevertheless be used as supporting evidence for recognizing indications of financial distress before delisting occurs. Accordingly, the three models may serve as complementary analytical instruments for evaluating corporate financial conditions, provided that the characteristics of their indicators and classification thresholds are taken into account.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
References
Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589–609. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00843.x
Altman, E. I., & Hotchkiss, E. (2006). Corporate Financial Distress and Bankruptcy: Predict and Avoid Bankruptcy, Analyze and Invest in Distressed Debt (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118267806
Harahap, S. D., Saputra, D., & Anhar, R. H. (2025). Analisis Perbandingan Akurasi Model Prediksi Kebangrutan Antara Model Altman dan Springate pada Perusahaan Sektor Pariwisata, Restoran, dan Hotel di BEI. Jurnal GeoEkonomi, 16(1), 83–95. https://doi.org/10.36277/geoekonomi.v16i1.547
Kason, K., Angkasa, C., Gozali, Y., Wijaya, R. A., & Hutahean, T. F. (2020). Analisis Perbandingan Keakuratan Memprediksi Financial Distress dengan Menggunakan Model Grover, Springate dan Altman Z-Score pada Perusahaan Pertambangan yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia pada Tahun 2013-2017. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, Ekonomi, & Akuntansi (MEA), 4(3), 441–458. https://doi.org/10.31955/mea.v4i3.438
Kusdiana, Y., Tinaria, L., Zubir, Z., & Masril, M. (2023). Model Altman’s Z-Score dan Springate Memprediksi Financial Distress (Studi Kasus Perusahaan Sub Migas yang Tercatat di BEI Tahun 2017-2020). Jurnal Akuntansi, Manajemen, Bisnis Dan Teknologi, 3(1), 127–135. https://doi.org/10.56870/ambitek.v3i1.78
Platt, H. D., & Platt, M. B. (2006). Understanding Differences Between Financial Distress and Bankruptcy. Review of Applied Economics, 2(2), 141–157. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.50146
Putri, M. E., & Challen, A. E. (2021). Prediksi Kebangkrutan Pada Perusahaan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia. JAS (Jurnal Akuntansi Syariah), 5(2), 126–141. https://doi.org/10.46367/jas.v5i2.425
Rahmat, R. (2020). Analisis Financial Distress Menggunakan Model Altman Z-Score, Springate Zmijewski, Grover dan Penilaian Kesehatan Bank Metode Camel. Jurnal ASET (Akuntansi Riset), 12(1), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.17509/jaset.v12i1.23062
Ramadhania, N. A. M., & Achyani, F. (2024). Analisis Pengujian Financial Distress Model Altman Z-Score, Springate Z-Score, Zmijewski X-Score, Grover, Dan Taffler. SEIKO: Journal of Management & Business, 7(2), 132–148. https://doi.org/10.37531/sejaman.v7i2.6626
Salim, M. N., & Ismudjoko, D. (2021). An Analysis of Financial Distress Accuracy Models in Indonesia Coal Mining Industry: An Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, Ohlson and Grover Approaches. Journal of Economics, Finance and Accounting Studies, 3(2), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.32996/jefas.2021.3.2.1
Sinarwati, N. K., & Herawati, N. T. (2021). Pendampingan Perencanaan Keuangan dan Investasi Saham untuk Organisasi Taruna-Taruni. Aksiologiya: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat, 5(2), 209–221. https://doi.org/10.30651/aks.v5i2.5103
Sukriani, N. L., & Sulindawati, N. L. G. E. (2025). Pengaruh Prediksi Kebangkrutan dengan Model Altman Z-Score, Springate S-Score dan Zmijewski X-Score terhadap Harga Saham pada Perusahaan Papan Pengembangan Sektor Energi di BEI Tahun 2021-2023. Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi Dan Humanika, 15(1), 58–69. https://doi.org/10.23887/jiah.v15i1.91914
Wahyuni EDT, R., & Seriska, H. (2022). Altman Z-Score dan Springate: Metode Komparasi dalam Memprediksi Kemungkinan Kebangkrutan Suatu Perusahaan. Akuntabilitas, 15(2), 229–240. https://doi.org/10.15408/akt.v15i2.28600
Zmijewski, M. E. (1984). Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models. Journal of Accounting Research, 22, 59–82. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490859